Jacksonville Jaguars At Indianapolis Colts Preview

Week 6 Preview

AFC South Standings:

This is the current injury report, the Colts needed the mini-bye

We’re here, one third of the way throughout the regular season, 12 weeks of regular season football is left. The struggling Jacksonville Jaguars will head up to Indy for a big time matchup with the Colts, in a rematch from Week 2. The Jaguars had their way with the Colts in week 2, smothering them 24-0 for their 9th straight win against the Colts in Jacksonville. 

For Colts fans, it may still feel like doom and gloom as Jacksonville has been a big talking point all season and in seasons past, but the Colts have their own little winning streak against Jacksonville when they come to town. The Jaguars are just 5-16 in Indianapolis in their franchise history, their first win came 10/24/2004. The Jags were 4-2 and coming off a 1-2 stretch against the Colts, Chargers and Chiefs. They came into Indy and knocked off a 4-1 Colts team coming off the bye by a score of 27-24, the Colts went 12-4 that year and lost in the divisional round to the Patriots. In 2008, they defeated the Colts 23-21, that Colts team also went 12-4, and lost to the Chargers in the divisional round. Then in 2011, a year where Peyton Manning was out the entire season and 2012, Andrew Luck’s rookie year, they defeated the Colts 17-3 and 22-17, respectively. 2017 was their last win in Indianapolis, in a shutout at 27-0, that year Andrew Luck was hurt and the Jaguars really should have gone to the Super Bowl. The Jags are 1-8 in their last 9 games in Indianapolis and have last 4 in a row. Looking at the Jaguars home and road splits, they complete passes at 64.9% at home, while only 60.6% on the road with 6 sacks away and no sacks allowed at home. The bright side is Lawrence has thrown 6 touchdowns in road games and only 2 at home. The Jags haven’t been at home much either, seeing their only home games have been divisional opponents and their 3 road games are NFC East opponents or the Chargers. Their offense only converts at 47.4% in the RedZone, ranking 23rd in the league. This season they have only allowed one touchdown outside of the 2nd or 4th quarter, that came on a Curtis Samuel touchdown reception from Carson Wentz, former Colts quarterback and now Commanders commander. Every other touchdown they have allowed has been in the second or fourth quarter, it shows their defense can’t stand up when they need them to, those are the 2 crucial quarters of football, if you win those, you can win the game. The guy for the Colts to watch is either Way Jones, who leads the team in receptions with 22, or Christian Kirk who leads them in yards, touchdowns and targets. Believe it or not, Travis Etienne leads the running backs in yards per rush with 4.89 compared to James Robinson’s 4.14. Robinson leads the team in attempts and yards. Etienne is seeing much better results in the yards after carry per rush stat, ahead of Robinson with 2.3. Offensively, they see a large dip in their completion percentages from quarter 1 (68.2%) to quarter 2 (52.9%) and from quarter 3 (76.3%) to quarter 4 (56.3%). One interesting offensive struggle is their inability to run the ball on third and short situations, they see 1.4 y/a on third and 1-3 yards. Jacksonville defensively struggles with stopping the pass in the 2nd quarter, giving up a 94.2 QBR on a 71% completion percentage. They improve as the games goes, giving up a 56.3 QBR in the 4th quarter. Their worst down defensive is 2nd down, giving up 4.8 YPC and a 66.1 completion percentage but on 3rd down they allow a 89.0 QBR, allowing 16 first downs in 25 3rd down pass completions. On third and short, their defense gives up just a 50% completion percentage but just under 17 yards per completion. They have blitzed 48 times this season, racking up just 3 sacks when blitzing and allowing a 55.5% completion percentage on a 72.0 rating. Their scoring is much better on the road than at home, they have averaged 27 ppg on the road and 15 ppg at home. The Colts have given up 20.5 ppg at home, but they have not given up more than 24 points all season. 

The Indianapolis Colts are arguably the weirdest team in the NFL, they are .500, they have not been able to beat the teams from the weakest division in football while they are undefeated against what was to be believed as the strongest division in football. They have defeated quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson and lose to Ryan Tannehill, Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence. They have the 4th best rushing defense in the league, giving up 96.6 YDS/G, they are top 10 in PPG on defense, 8th in total YDS/G but their passing defense has been suspect to say the least, they are middle of the pack while allowing just over ten yards per completion at home. They have allowed 4 touchdowns in the first quarter, 4 in the second, 2 in the third and get this, 0 POINTS in the 4th quarter. The last team to do that through 5 games was the 1995 Chargers, if they keep it up, they would be the first team to shutout the 4th quarter through 6 games since the 1934 Lions and Bears, oh my! They are giving up a 19.9 QBR in the 4th quarter and only allowing 2.7 yards per rush attempt in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Overall their second half defense plays much better, that is most definitely why it feels like they are at least in every game they play in, except in Jacksonville week 2. Offensively, the Colts are the worst team in the league, they have scored the least amount of points and are 1.2 points per game behind the second worst team, the Denver Broncos. Their passing game is roughly middle of the pack but their rushing game is bottom 10 in the league, how can this happen with Jonathan Taylor? Last year, Taylor was a First Team All-Pro running back, he torched the league, racking up 1811 rushing yards. This year has been different, Taylor has seen 81 rushes in 4 games. Last year he averaged 2.6 yards before contact per rush, he is exactly the same this year, his issue is his yards after contact, he was at 2.8 last year, now he has plummeted down to 1.4 YAC. He had 25 broken tackles last season on 332 rush attempts, on his 81 rush attempts this year, he is already at 11 broken tackles, that’s 13.3 ATT/BR last year compared to 7.4 ATT/BR this year. Taylor is prone to slow starts, from September, October, November, December and January this year, his average yards per game goes from 71 to 78.3 to 88.4 to 117 to 146 with his yards per attempt going from 4.23 to 5.04 to 5.28 to 5.28 to 6.74. This year could be different, the offensive line is not the same to say the least. The Colts rank #29 in QB sack percentages at 9.72%, I am shocked we aren’t #32. They are 30th in the NFL with 2.2 turnovers per game, of the turnovers, the Colts have fumbled 11 times, somehow losing only 4 and thrown 7 interceptions to rank #30 in turnover differential at -6. Matt Ryan can take some of the blame, he is a veteran who needs to protect the ball, that’s why he is here, to not lose the Colts games, we don’t need him to win them for us, that’s why our defense is there. The offensive line is the biggest culprit, Ryan wouldn’t have the chance to fumble the ball if they could stop the defense from getting to him so quickly, he wouldn’t feel the pressure to force a throw into double coverage if he had time to survey the field. The Colts wide receiver core is starting to take shape and they can be very dangerous, Alec Pierce was Superman on Thursday Night, literally ripping a ball from a cornerback’s hands. MPJ is the clear #1 and Harris Campbell is going to be a deep threat if Ryan ever gets the time to let his receiver’s get deep. The tight ends are the most under utilized position on the team, Mo Ali Cox is 6’6, 260 and Jelani Woods is 6’7, 253, they are bigger than everyone else, use it, have Ryan throw jump balls to them when you’re 10-20 yards from the end zone, they tried it against Tennessee but they haven’t done it since, they are an unstoppable duo. 

Ok, I threw a lot of numbers at you, what do they mean? Well, they mean the Colts might win. But let’s get deeper into that, these teams matchup well, the Colts offense has not seen an opening drive touchdown and they downright struggle in the 1st quarter, the team hasn’t scored over 20 points all season and the Jags give up 16 points per game. They have a great front 7, ranking 5th in rushing yards per game allowed while the Colts rush only 91.4 YDS/G, unless the line reshuffles and can find a groove, it won’t matter if Taylor is back there, the Colts are going to have to throw the ball, which is where the Colts are better, they rank around the middle of the league in passing yards per game, right with the Jags. The Colts and Jags are neck and neck in defensive pass yards per game, right in the middle of the pack, the AFC South is weird. This game on paper should be very close, both teams are statistically matching up on both defense and offense, in all facets of the game, now history will show differently and we all know, when the Colts and Jags get together, throw out the record books.

Official Prediction: 

Colts 20

Jags 14