2020 Fantasy Previews Part 16: Kansas City Chiefs

Last year was the first season where Chiefs finally got over the hump. This was mainly due to their top 10 passing and scoring defense. They also had one of the best offenses in the NFL, led by Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid used his backyard style of offense and all of his lightning speed receivers to run deep routes and get open. Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman both have elite track speed and can easily get open. Add in Demarcus Robinson and Sammy Watkins and you have the fastest group of receivers in the NFL. The Chiefs added another explosive dynamic to their offense through the NFL Draft as they selected Clyde Edwards-Helaire at the end of the first round. With their other picks, the Chiefs targeted defensive players, which should help elevate their defense even more. The Chiefs should remain at the top of the NFL with all of their offseason additions. The offense will be as dangerous as ever with Patrick Mahomes learning even more ways to throw the football during the offseason. The defense should also be improved, meaning the Chiefs should be back at the top of the NFL.

Projected depth chart:

Quarterback: 1. Patrick Mahomes 2. Chad Henne

Running back: 1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2. Damien Williams

Wide receiver: 1. Tyreek Hill 2. Mecole Hardman 3. Demarcus Robinson 4. Byron Pringle

Slot receiver: 1. Sammy Watkins 2. Gehrig Deiter

Tight end: 1. Travis Kelce 2. Deon Yelder

Quarterbacks - In 2018, Patrick Mahomes was the MVP of the NFL and rightfully so. He passed for 5097 yards and 50 touchdowns. He was the QB1 and finished with 417.08 points and averaged 26.1 points per game. Mahomes was the breakout player of 2018 after only starting 1 game the year before. He had over 20 fantasy points in every game but 3 and helped a lot of smart fantasy owners win the championship.

Mahomes regressed in 2019. A regression for Patrick Mahomes means he finished as the QB6 after he had sky high expectations after 2018. He started 14 games and had 4031 yards and 26 touchdowns. Mahomes had 8 games where he scored under 20 fantasy points. If he played the whole season, Mahomes would've been the QB4. Mahomes was one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy and in real life.

Mahomes will be at the top of most quarterback rankings and rightfully so. He is the best quarterback in real life and should be near the top in fantasy. Mahomes is going around the 2nd-3rd round and I am not taking him there. That is too high of a price to pay for a quarterback that scored below 20 points in more than half of his games last year. Mahomes will be one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy, but I would rather take a 2nd tier quarterback later.

Running backs - Last season, Damien Williams was going in the 2nd-3rd round of fantasy. I tried to draft him in most of my leagues, but luckily he was taken before me in most of my leagues. Williams was bad last year. He only had 111 carries for 498 yards and 5 touchdowns in 11 games. Williams finished as the RB34 and would've been the RB18 if he played a full 16 game season. He was solid but he was taken way too high.

This made the Chiefs select Clyde Edwards-Helaire from LSU at the end of the first round. He will help a lot with the run game and in the pass game. Edwards-Helaire caught 55 passes for LSU. He should in and be the workhorse for Kansas City. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will try to put up stats like Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt. He is a much better receiver than Williams and McCoy and is a better runner.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is being taken in the 2nd-3rd round in most drafts this year. While I do think he is going to be good, I think it is too risky to take him that high. The Chiefs only ran the ball 311 times last year and all of those players are back. He will also have to compete for targets with all of the Chiefs receivers and Travis Kelce. Damien Williams is going undrafted and rightfully so. He will not be involved in the offense and should not be taken.

Wide receivers - Along with Mahomes, Chiefs receivers had a down year. Tyreek Hill was hurt for 4 games and finished with 188.3 fantasy points. Hill caught 58 passes for 860 yards and 7 touchdowns. He finished as the WR32 and would've finished as the WR9 if he played all 16 games. Hill was very boom or bust as he finished with under 15 points in 7 games and over 20 in 4 games.

The other 2 receivers were decent, but not as good. Sammy Watkins caught 52 passes for 673 yards and 3 touchdowns in 14 games. Watkins finished as the WR51 and caught all three of his touchdown passes in week 1 where he caught 9 passes for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns. Mecole Hardman finished as the WR64 and was a decent flex option. He finished with over 10 points in 7 of his games, which is pretty good for a player who you can find on most waiver wires.

Tyreek Hill will have a bounce back year. He broke his clavicle, which is a very rare football injury that almost never repeats. He is being taken at the end of the first round and that is good value for the WR1 on this offense. Watkins says he will get 100 targets which will never happen. He might not even be the second highest player targeted on the team. I like Hardman as a deep sleeper this year, who is blazing fast and you can get him very late in most leagues.

Travis Kelce has by far been the best and most consistent tight end over the last 4 years. The lowest amount of points he had was 223 points. He has had over 80 in all four years. He has had over 1000 receiving yards in all 4 years. The lowest amount of touchdowns he had was 4. If you take Kelce's worst stats over the last 4 years, he would've had 210.8 fantasy points. That would've been the TE1 in 2016, TE2 in 2017, TE4 in 2018, and TE4 in 2019.

Kelce finished as the TE1 in 2019 with 254.3 fantasy points. He had 97 receptions for 1229 yards and 5 touchdowns. Kelce played all 16 games and had 8 or more targets in 13 of those. Kelce had over 15 fantasy points in 9 of his 16 games. He had a low floor and only had under 10 points in 2 games.

Kelce is the best tight end for fantasy heading into 2020. He gets the most targets and has the best quarterback in the NFL. Kelce is being taken in the second round and that is way too high. Players you take in the second round should be scoring a lot more than tight ends usually do. I have never taken a tight end before the fourth round. Kelce will be very good this year and he has a very high floor, but he is not good value in the second round.

Fantasy analysis:

Too early to take: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce

Good value: Tyreek Hill

Overvalued: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Not enough touches)

Sleeper: Mecole Hardman

Handcuffs: Chad Henne, Damien Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Deon Yelder

I hope you liked 2020 Fantasy Previews Part 16: Kansas City Chiefs. Next up is 2020 Fantasy Previews Part 17: Las Vegas Raiders. Feel free to comment your thoughts on the Chiefs' offense for fantasy 2020.

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