Well, having Erik Spoelstra as your coach is a good start. It also doesn't hurt that you have a terrific leader in Jimmy Butler and other great talents like Adebayo.
I know, it's the same thing you've already heard, but I have to say it. The three point shooting of Miami is simply incredible. Almost every player on their team can shoot the ball, and that meshes with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo's game. The mid-range game and the paint game. The Heat are number two in the league in three point shooting behind Utah at 37.9%. The Bucks have a good defense, as they are number 8 in the entire league in opponent points per game. I think that the Heat could really put the Bucks defense to the test. The Bucks inside defense is what really thrives. Having guys under there like Giannis, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, and even bench guys like Ersan Ilyasova and Marvin Williams. All these guys are capable of coming up with a good block and are all solid defenders in the paint. When it comes to perimeter defending, the Bucks have good players to lock that up too, but this is where they will be put to the test. I feel like Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic will cancel each other out. They are both veteran guards, but Dragic is the more talented offensive player, and will give Bledsoe a run for his money. Wesley Matthews could be considered a defensive player, but his agility and ability to stay with his opponent is dwindling every year. I think he will have a tough time keeping up with guys like Robinson and Herro. They are two very young guards that are always moving and could possibly have Matthews on the ground a couple times in this upcoming series.
If Jimmy Butler is on his game, he's going to make life hard for Khris Middleton, both on the offensive and defensive end. When healthy, Butler is a very explosive and aggressive player, again, both on the offensive and defensive end. If you've ever watched Middleton play, he's a very slow and smooth player, and he's definitely more of an offensive player than he is defensive. So I think that Adebayo and Butler will need to be ready to drive and kick. With the Heat's smaller lineup, they just aren't going to flourish in the paint. I could honestly see some more minutes given to Kelly Olynyk because of his shooting. Bam is a great player and all, but I feel that with the combo of Giannis and Brook Lopez, it will be extremely hard for him to even get a shot up or a rebound. I still see him playing big minutes because the Heat need to be able to get rebounds.
In regards to Milwaukee, I think this is really a must win series for them. Let me explain why. This is obviously Giannis' last year with the Bucks, so they need to make it count. We all know that Giannis will explore his free agency options, and we don't know if he'll stay with the Bucks. I don't think he is currently happy with what's going on with Khris Middleton right now. The Bucks are paying Middleton an average of $35,000,000 a year, but Middleton hasn't been producing lately. He's only played in 4 games, but he's only scored 13.5 PPG off of 33.9 FG% from the field. Although he's averaged 5 assists per game, he's also averaging 4 turnovers per game. He's also shot 58.3% from the free throw line. His three point percentage is still decent and he's grabbing boards which is good, but being paid the amount that he's being payed, both Giannis and the organization are expecting more of him. Middleton will need to get out of this slump he's in and Giannis will need to continue to carry. The Bucks bench players will need to come up big as well because Miami's bench players will always be ready to fight.
I just felt the need to include this as the last piece of proof that the Heat are very capable of upsetting the Bucks.
In the end, it'll all come down to how well Milwaukee will defend the triple and how the Heat will fend off Giannis and Brook Lopez, we'll just have to see.