Fantasy Football Breakouts and Busts Three Weeks Into the Season

Updated: Oct 10

As we have just started Week 4 of the 2020 NFL Season, we are getting a good look at who each team is and isn't going to use. There have been some surprises, both good and bad, and I am going to analyze those in this article. The criterion for a bust is a player who has not lived up to their draft position. Busts on this list did not bust because of injury, but because of poor play and disappointing outputs.


Quarterback:


Breakout - Josh Allen


Josh Allen has been phenomenal through the first three weeks of the season, with weeks of 28.18, 34.5, and 31.24 fantasy points. He has been much more accurate this year, with a 71.1 completion percentage. While these three games were against the Jets, Dolphins, and Rams, Allen has looked much better than last year. He should continue his impressive output with his next two games being against the Raiders and the Titans. Before Week 1 of 2020, Allen had never thrown for over 300 yards in a game. He has done that all three weeks this season.


Bust - Carson Wentz


For someone who people were drafting as the QB9, Wentz has not played like it. Wentz is currently the QB25 in fantasy points per game with 15.6. It's not like he was playing the best defenses in the NFL either, as he went up against Washington, the Rams, and the Bengals. The only players that currently have a lower passer rating than Wentz's 63.9 are Jacoby Brissett, Chris Jones, Russell Gage, and Andy Dalton. Players like Dwayne Haskins and Brett Rypien have higher passer ratings than Wentz. He needs to start playing better, or the Eagles will have to consider playing Jalen Hurts.


Running back:


Breakout - James Robinson


James Robinson has been spectacular this year for the Jaguars. The undrafted free agent is currently the RB7 in fantasy points per game, despite only averaging 14.33 carries per game. He has put out performances of 10.0, 21.0, and 30.9 fantasy points against the Colts, Titans, and Dolphins. He has been fantastic for fantasy owners going with the RB0 approach, as he was available in virtually every league. With the Jaguars' weak schedule, expect Robinson to play like a high-end RB2.


Bust - Joe Mixon


Joe Mixon has been atrocious this season. JK Dobbins, Malcolm Brown, Joshua Kelley are all averaging more fantasy points per game than Mixon's 9.1. He has produced games of 6.1, 12.6, and 8.5 fantasy points, which has made him the RB38 in fantasy points per game. He plays Jacksonville in Week 4, where he will look to get back on track. The biggest issue with Mixon is he his not being thrown the ball. Mixon has nine targets so far this season in an offense that seems to be throwing the ball more. I would sell Mixon after an inflated Week 4 against the Jaguars.


Wide receiver:


Breakout - Calvin Ridley


With Tyler Lockett coming in at a not so distant second, Calvin Ridley has probably been the breakout player of the year so far. He has been the best receiver on the Falcons with games of 33.9, 29.9, and 16.7 points. Calvin Ridley is the WR1 in PPR scoring formats. If you drafted 2-3 good running backs before Ridley, you likely should be 3-0. With Julio Jones being used more as a decoy because of his injury, Ridley has blossomed. While I don't think he will finish the season as the WR1, he should finish as a top 7 receiver.


Bust - Odell Beckham


Did you know 45 receivers average more fantasy points than Odell Beckham? Those players include Adam Humphries, Tim Patrick, and Randall Cobb. Odell was being drafted at the end of the third round this year. Beckham has said himself that he is not going to be putting up monster stats anymore. He is definitely right about that with games of 5.2, 17.4, and 9.9 fantasy points. Beckham will continue to be a touchdown-dependent with WR3 upside.


Tight end:


Breakout - Jonnu Smith


Jonnu Smith is quietly the TE2 in points per game. Against Denver, Jacksonville, and Minnesota, he has put up 13.6, 24.4, and 11.1 points. Jonnu has 20 targets this season, which is fantastic for a tight end. He fits the modern mold of being a tight end who can turn short passes into huge gains. While Jonnu will likely get targeted less when A.J. Brown comes back, he should remain a top 6 tight end for the rest of the season.


Bust - Evan Engram


Like the entire New York Giants offense, Evan Engram has been awful this year. He is currently the TE28 in points per game, despite being drafted as the TE6. Engram has scored only 20.6 fantasy points this year against three above-average defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago, and San Francisco. He hasn't played a single team from the defensively challenged NFC East and should start producing in Week 4 against the Rams. If he can stay healthy, expect Engram to bounce back and finish as a low-end TE1.


Do you have any of these players on your fantasy team? Let me know in the comments!

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