My AL ROTY Prediction

Per usual, I was digging around on the MLB website, looking at award races, standings, and see how many games the Tigers have to win to make it into the playoffs. However, I got to the ROTY award race and noticed that there were a lot of contenders, pitching and positional players could make a run for it. In today's article, I will be going over my top candidates to win, giving percentages on how much I think they will win it.

*Stats and records are accurate as of 9/22

Randy Dobnak (MIN/RHP/6%)

Randy Dobnak is a pitcher for the Twins, that started extremely hot. It was until he faced the Tigers in the first game of a double-header when his troubles started. In 4.1 innings, Dobnak gave up 12 hits, six runs, and only one strikeout, resulting in a loss, and an abysmal 14 GmSc. Ever since then, Dobnak has gone 0-2 with an 11.34 ERA. If Dobnak can somehow get it back together with two quality starts he could make a push for it, but I doubt it.

Willi Castro (DET/SS/9%)

Willi Castro has broken out for the Tigers and has proved that he has a ton of potential after struggling last year. In 31 games, he's got 36 hits and 19 RBI. I think if Willi played the entire season and started in the majors he would have a higher chance. He's on pace for a 10 HR, 38 RBI, 0.8 WAR, and a 72 hit season if he started on opening day. Unfortunately, I don't think Willi will win the ROTY award because of his shortened-season but I do think we could see him continue this next season.

Cristian Javier (HOU/RHP/12%)

Cristian Javier is a pitcher for the Houston Astros and has filled in for the absence of Justin Verlander who has to undergo Tommy John, which ended his season and could end his career. It does sadden me, as a Tiger's fan to see JV go down like this, and it equally saddens me to see Houston having a great replacement for him. Anyways, Javier has a 4-2 record, with a solid 3.33 ERA. As a rookie, it is expected to see Javier struggle in the categories he struggles in. He's got a below-average HR/9 and can lose control over pitches at times. He does, however, excel in the majority of important categories, ranking in the top 80% in xERA, HH%, xwOBA, xBA, curve spin, and exit velocity.

Ryan Mountcastle (BAL/LF/17%)

Similar to Willi, Mountcastle has had an awesome year. Slashing .330/.389/.530, with more hits than games. However, he and Willi both have had a shortened season with their clubs which is why I believe they both don't have high odds to win the award. Mountcastle, in 113 PA, has 33 hits, five home runs, and 21 RBI, but does have a 23.9K% which doesn't bode well for his chances. Plus, he's got a combined OAA of -2, which shows that he needs to work on his fielding.

Nick Solak (TEX/LF/23%)

Nick Solak has emerged out of nowhere as a top candidate for the AL ROTY. Similar to Ryan Mountcastle, his fielding holds him back, posting a -2 OAA which isn't very good. However, offensively he has been hitting great, slashing .268/.321/.353. He's only hit two home runs and has a negative WAR, which is why he doesn't have higher odds. He's got a lot of room to improve but has had a good rookie season.

Jesús Luzardo (OAK/RHP/31%)

Luzardo has been the starting pitcher the A's have relied on this season with a pretty weak starting rotation. Luzardo 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 11 appearances. He pounds the strike zone well, resulting in a 9.5K/9 and a 1.4HR/9. His fastball is top-notch, ranking in the 84% in fastball velocity, and is in the 79% in fastball spin.

Luis Robert (CWS/CF/46%)

This may come as a surprise having Luis Robert not having the highest odds, but Robert has been in a slump for the past couple weeks. I've noticed his BA drop significantly, resulting in fewer hits, home runs, and other noticeable stats. He's slashing .230/.302/.454, so when he does make contact, he hits it terrifically but hasn't seemed to be able to do that recently. It could go either way between Robert and Lewis, but I think Lewis will and should win it unless Robert drastically turns it around

Kyle Lewis (SEA/OF/55%)

Finally, I have Kyle Lewis winning the AL ROTY, as I previously mentioned, it could go either way but I think Lewis has had the better season. He's slashing .278/.383/.471. He's got an OPS of .853 which is also really good. In the field, he plays infield and outfield and has a 6 OAA, which for those who don't know is pretty solid. He's also got a good eye, drawing 33 walks this season, 5th in the AL.

Thanks for reading, and leave some feedback in the comments!

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