Derrick Henry has been carrying fantasy teams to start the season, as he is the RB1, and it’s not even close. He is averaging 7 fantasy points per game more than the RB2 and is making the few “Derrick Henry truthers” not sound insane. He has his second straight week of 3 touchdowns and third straight of 130+ yards. I would not want to be playing Tennessee right now. Starts and sits obviously won’t include players like Derrick Henry, but here is one start and one sit for each position for week 7.
Start: Matthew Stafford LAR vs DET
Week 7 marks the reunion game for both Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff against their old teams. This will not be a close game and will likely be a blowout when the clock hits triple zeroes. The Lions have a bottom-five pass defense in the NFL, and the Rams have a top-five pass offense. Stafford will be slinging it all game to star wideouts Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp and if the Lions can muster up some offense, Stafford could finish as the QB1 this week.
Sleepers: Jameis Winston NO vs SEA and Justin Fields CHI vs TB
Sit: Derek Carr vs PHI
Philadelphia is top five in the league in opponent passing yards per game, allowing just 211.8 per contest. Tom Brady threw for 297 on them, but Derek Carr is not Tom Brady. If the Raiders want to win, they will have to do it on the ground with Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake. Carr is a very risky start this week, and if you have any other options, I would go with them as this game screams “proceed with caution” for the Raiders’ signal-caller.
Busts: Daniel Jones NYG vs CAR and Teddy Bridgewater DEN vs CLE
Start: James Conner ARI vs HOU
I’ll start this one off with an interesting stat: James Conner is averaging almost 17 carries per game in games where the Cardinals win by two touchdowns or more. Conner and the Cardinals get the Houston Texans this week in what should be an Arizona blowout. With 6 teams not playing and another 7 starting running backs injured, Conner moves up to an RB2 in my rankings this week with RB1 upside.
Sleepers: Chuba Hubbard CAR vs NYG and Darrell Henderson LAR vs DET
Sit: Joe Mixon CIN vs BAL
I probably shouldn’t go as risky here as my Aaron Jones pick backfired on me because the Bears gave up a couple of chunk plays, but I’m not really feeling Joe Mixon this week against the Ravens. Baltimore is third in the league, averaging 82.0 rushing yards per game. Joe Mixon has 2 or fewer targets in 4 out of the 6 games he has played this season. If Mixon can’t get going on the ground, they will look to the air, but they often haven’t looked in Mixon’s direction. Look for Joe Mixon to take a step back against a familiar divisional foe this week.
Busts: Damien Williams/Khalil Herbert CHI vs TB and Alex Collins SEA vs NO
Start: DeVonta Smith PHI vs LV
DeVonta Smith has shown flashes this year of fantasy potential, but I think this is the game that he finally breaks out in. Las Vegas has an abysmal pass defense, and this should be a game where both teams have scored in the upper twenties. I’m calling my shot here with this week named the “DeVonta Smith breakout week” as he will finish as a WR1 and show why he won the Heisman trophy for being the best player in the country 1 season ago.
Sleepers: Darnell Mooney CHI vs TB and Marquez Callaway NO vs SEA
Sit: Sterling Shepard NYG vs CAR
Sterling Sheppard seems like the wide receiver to own in this New York offense, when healthy, as he is averaging 11 targets per contest in the games he finishes. Sheppard is healthy this week, but he is going against a stingy Panthers defense who will look to shut him down at all costs. This might be a heavy DeVonta Booker (or Saquon Barkley if healthy) type of game as the Giants are going against a defense allowing 196.8 passing yards per game. I am downgrading Shepard to a low-end flex play this week and would look elsewhere if possible to fill the flex spot.
Busts: Terry McLaurin WAS vs GB and Brandin Cooks HOU vs ARI
Start: Hunter Henry NE vs NYJ
While he hasn’t gotten a lot of targets, Hunter Henry has found the end zone in three straight games and has emerged as Mac Jones’ favorite red-zone target. New York has been one of the worst teams at guarding the tight end position, and New England will look to exploit that this week. If you have the tight end on one of the six teams on bye, Hunter Henry should be a nice lineup-filler until they get back.
Sleeper: Anthony Firkser TEN vs KC
Sit: Noah Fant vs CLE
Noah Fant had his best game of the season last week against Las Vegas as he turned 11 targets into 9 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown. That will not happen this week as Noah Fant is facing one of the best defenses in the NFL. Denver plays the Cleveland Browns and will struggle to put points on the board and keep drives going. If you are deciding between Fant and Hunter Henry, I would start Hunter Henry as he has the more favorable matchup.
Bust: Rob Gronkowski/OJ Howard TB vs CHI
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I think Bears are still gonna force their way on the ground. They might throw it a little more, but their main source of offense will still be on the ground.