Week 8- Commanders vs Colts Preview

AFC South Standings

SOUTH	W	L	T	PCT
Tennessee	4	2	0	.667
Indianapolis	3	3	1	.500
Jacksonville	2	5	0	.286
Houston	1	4	1	.250

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Player	Position	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Game Status
Stephon Gilmore	CB	Rest	DNP	FP	FP	(-)
Yannick Ngakoue	DE	Rest	DNP	FP	FP	(-)
Kwity Paye	DE	Ankle	DNP	DNP	DNP	out
Matt Ryan	QB	Right shoulder	DNP	DNP	DNP	out
Grant Stuard	LB	Pectoral	DNP	DNP	DNP	out
JoJo Domann	LB	Abdomen	LP	FP	FP	(-)
Ryan Kelly	C	Knee	LP	FP	FP	(-)
Keke Coutee	WR	Concussion	FP	FP	FP	(-)
Zaire Franklin	OLB	Shoulder	FP	FP	FP	(-)
Shaquille Leonard	OLB	Back	FP	FP	FP	(-)
Luke Rhodes	LS	Shoulder	FP	FP	FP	(-)
Grover Stewart	DT	Rest	(-)	DNP	FP	(-)
DeForest Buckner	DT	Rest	(-)	(-)	DNP	(-)
Kenny Moore II	CB	Finger	(-)	(-)	LP	questionable

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Player	Position	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Game Status
Saahdiq Charles	G	Illness	DNP	DNP	LP	questionable
Jahan Dotson	WR	Hamstring	DNP	DNP	DNP	out
Cole Holcomb	LB	Foot	DNP	DNP	DNP	out
William Jackson	CB	Back	DNP	DNP	DNP	out
Cole Turner	TE	Concussion	DNP	DNP	DNP	out
Dyami Brown	WR	Groin	LP	LP	LP	questionable
Logan Thomas	TE	Calf	LP	LP	LP	questionable
Jonathan Williams	RB	Knee	LP	LP	FP	(-)
Sam Cosmi	OT	Finger	FP	FP	FP	(-)
Taylor Heinicke	QB	Calf	FP	FP	FP	(-)
Jonathan Allen	DT	NIR (Rest)		DNP	FP	(-)

INDIANAPOLIS, IN- In arguably the most uncertain week in the recent history of the Indianapolis Colts, the Washington Commanders come to town in a high tension meeting between Jim Irsay and Dan Snyder, the true battle everyone is ready for. Colts fans are excited about this game because of Sam Ehlinger’s first start and considering his linebacker like build and mobility, Colts fans are already to dub him the next Andrew Luck before ever actually seeing him play a down in the NFL. Commanders fans are just excited to see Taylor Heinicke throw the ball. It’s crazy how we expected to see Matt Ryan vs Carson Wentz just 2 weeks ago, expecting bad offense and mediocre defense, an overall boring game, but now it’s 2 gunslingers who can either put 50 points up or 3 points on 5 interceptions, I genuinely don’t know how to feel about this game, stats really don’t matter too much because both teams have seen their starting quarterback’s go down with injuries, but we will try to talk about the two teams.

Washington Offensive Rankings

*All Stats are Per Game

Yards: 326.6 (24th)

Passing Yards: 221 (19th)

Rushing Yards: 105.6 (22nd)

Points: 17.9 (26th)

Indianapolis Offensive Rankings

*All Stats are Per Game

Yards: 341.6 (16th)

Passing Yards: 260.6 (7th)

Rushing Yards: 81 (30th)

Points: 16.1 (30th)

Washington Defensive Rankings

*All Stats are Per Game

Yards: 335.9 (13th)

Passing Yards: 217.6 (17th)

Rushing Yards: 118.3 (16th)

Points: 22.3 (19th)

Indianapolis Defensive Rankings

*All Stats are Per Game

Yards: 313.7 (8th)

Passing Yards: 190.3 (6th)

Rushing Yards: 123.4 (22nd)

Points: 20 (13th)

Turnover Differential

Washington: -5 (4 takeaways, 9 turnovers)

Indianapolis: -7 (7 takeaways, 14 turnovers)

Before his injury, Carson Wentz accounted for 6 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles in the total of 13 Washington turnovers, last week Taylor Heinicke threw one interception. Carson was on pace to turn the ball over 22 times in the season in total, is that a part of a lackluster offense or bad quarterback decisions? We can’t tell because Heinicke definitely is not a better decision maker and one of their better wide receivers is inactive this week, Jahan Dotson, he has 12 receptions for 152 yards and 4 touchdowns in 4 total games, 3 started. He has had trouble with his hands, seeing a 54% catch percentage but with averaging a touchdown per game, he has shown to be a significant threat in the RedZone, 3 of his 4 touchdowns were in the RedZone, one against Jacksonville to win the game. Based on their offensive splits, they seem to give up on the run as the games goes on, probably because they are playing from behind most games anyways. Now onto Heinicke, the guy who has been rejected for all of his career, is back again. His first start of 2022 he went 20/33, 201 YDS, 2 TD and 1 INT. He saw just over an 18% bad throw percentage against Green Bay vs just over a 16% bad throw percentage in 2021. Remember, this is one game so take these stats with a grain of salt, but he didn’t have a 15%+ bad throw percentage in a game last year until his 5th game of the season, where he rattled off 4 straight games with 15%+ including 3 of 4 of 20%+. He saw 24.6% of his drop backs pressured, basically 1 in 4 of his passing plays were pressured, last week he was pressured 40% of his plays, 2 in 5 plays. Last season he saw 1 game with a 40%+ pressure percentage at 46.2%, in a 56-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Last season he saw a 3.7% drop percentage but he saw a lower drop rate against Green Bay with 3.1%. On defense, Chase Young was scheduled to start conditioning this week in his return from IR, so expect James Smith-Williams to stay in the starter spot with Montez Sweat opposite him on the right side. They are struggling at linebacker, with all 3 middle line backers either out or on IR this week so an already mediocre defense is going to see some important pieces missing making the middle particularly thin for the Colts offense. 

Standing at 6-1, Sam Ehlinger is one of the shorter quarterbacks in the league, usually 6’2 is about as short as almost any NFL team wants their quarterback to be, unless you can move like Kyler Murray, you’re going to struggle behind a big offensive and defensive line, and we saw how much Matt Ryan had his balls batted down at the line. Back in August, it was reported that Ehlinger was working with legendary throwing coach, Tom House, House has worked with Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and many more well known NFL Quarterbacks. House is most well known to Colts fans as the guy who healed Andrew Luck and got him back for the 2018 season. Tom House said in a quote about Ehlinger, “Sam is one of those guys who can do both. He’s built like a linebacker and has got the mentality of a linebacker with the makeup of a quarterback, which is a great combination. If he can stay efficient with his throwing mechanics and continue to make plays when pockets break down or he’s actually called on to run the ball? If he can handle the abuse that a running quarterback takes? Then they might have something really special”. Well, now you might read that and immediately think “Andrew Luck”, I don’t, I think it’s a very vague quote from a coach who obviously wouldn’t criticize his client and make himself look bad. All the fans think Andrew Luck when they hear that and he is built like Luck but we can’t expect him to have the mind of Luck and he certainly doesn’t have the arm strength Luck has. I would expect a lot of running the ball and check downs from the Colts, ease the kid into the NFL but if they get down late and need a comeback, they’ll give him the reigns and let him cook. He definitely can move better than Matt Ryan, he’s younger and faster than Ryan, he needs the mentality to learn to run only when you need to, not when you want to. Ehlinger has mentioned just letting his playmakers make plays, well, let’s see it, Parris Campbell has already reached his career high in touchdowns, receptions and yards in the 7 games he has played with 239 yards, 2 touchdowns and 28 receptions. Jonathan Taylor will most likely see a higher workload heading into this matchup, he only saw 10 attempts for 58 yards last week in their loss to the Titans, I would be shocked if they don’t give him the ball at least 20 times, there is no indication he was on some sort of a pitch count so it still baffles me that they didn’t use him more. On the other side of the ball, Darius Leonard will be making his return after his broken nose and concussion, the defense will most definitely be jacked up and excited, when the Chiefs came to town he was screaming from the sidelines getting everyone excited, now he gets to come back home and punch some balls out. He has been the opportunistic spark the defense is missing, Bobby Okereke is a solid line backer but Leonard is a monster and can really change the defense and their confidence.

Offensive Keys to the Game

1. Use Taylor: You have the yards leader from last year, use him, especially with a rookie under center, you can’t not use him as a big part of the offense, if there is anything under 20 carries, everyone should be fired at this point
2. Make it Easy on Ehlinger: It’s his first regular season action of his career, don’t ask him to throw it over 40 times, at the very max, score early and often
3. Use Hines: He is one of the most athletic players on the field, institute him into the passing game to help Ehlinger

Defensive Keys to the Game

1. Win the Turnover Battle: Ehlinger is bound to make mistakes, help the kid out and get him the ball, don’t let the Commanders have a chance to score
2. Attack Heinicke: He’s short a wide receiver, he’s young and struggles under pressure, keep him in the pocket and get after him
3. Shut Down the Middle: Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke have always struggled in pass coverage over the middle, they make up for it with their turnover forcing ability, if you allow Heineken to pick apart the middle, you’ll never be able to stop them

Score Prediction:

Colts: 17

Commanders: 13